Huntsman out

Jon Huntsman has withdrawn from the Republican primary race. His timing is rather interesting – only a few days after being endorsed by South Carolina’s largest newspaper. Perhaps he dropped out after seeing some bad internal polling, or perhaps there is more to this. Huntsman has polled reasonably well as an independent candidate in hypothetical three-way match-ups against Obama and a Republican candidate, and he may be preparing to emulate John Anderson in 1980, who quit the GOP and launched an independent campaign. Huntsman’s diplomatic experience and previous work as ambassador to China could also make him a potential Secretary of State in a second Obama administration.

A Huntsman independent/third-party campaign could be interesting. He has name recognition, and certainly has enough funds if he is willing to use his private wealth for such a campaign. His base would be economically conservative, socially moderate independents, a group which swung heavily to the Republicans at the 2010 midterms, and which will be key to a GOP victory in 2012. Huntsman may not win a single state’s electoral votes (including his home state of Utah, given that Mitt Romney now looks the likely GOP nominee), but he could draw away enough votes to deprive the Republicans of enough electoral votes to make things very interesting. In an earlier post, I speculated about the effect of such an independent candidacy, but had in mind Michael Bloomberg. Huntsman, running as an independent, could do just as much damage and attract the same type of voter, but would have a broader geographic and demographic appeal.

What does Huntsman’s withdrawal mean for the remaining Republican candidates? Not much, although it deprives the Anyone But Romney crowd of another potential saviour. Given that Rick Perry’s campaign is a laughing stock, Newt Gingrich is faltering and has been damned as a socialist for his anti-Bain Capital line, Ron Paul is unacceptable to the party, and Rick Santorum probably can’t overrun Romney, there doesn’t appear to be anyone left who can stop the weakest frontrunner in the history of the modern primary system from walking away with the nomination. The rallying of a group of 150 prominent social conservative leaders to Santorum might not amount to anything in the primaries, but it’s hard to see those elements easily putting aside their differences with Mittens.

My prediction: conservative disenchantment with the Romney coronation will manifest itself tangibly by November – either in the form of a third-party movement (whether that be a brand-new party or a mass defection to the Constitution Party), or in the form of a last-ditch late entry into the primary contests in May and June by someone like Chris Christie or Paul Ryan.