Current Australian parliaments under MMP

I haven’t been covering Australian politics much on this blog – the whole Julia ‘n’ Tony Show is a bit dreary and there’s so much more exciting stuff going on in the Republican primaries and the campaign for the French presidency. However, I’ve been thinking a lot lately about electoral systems and decided to do a little experiment to see what Australia’s political scene would look like if the federal, state, and territory parliaments which currently use single-member districts switched to a mixed-member proportional system.

I’ve ignored Tasmania and the ACT, since they already use a form of proportional representation (the Hare-Clark single transferable vote) and have used the most recent election result in each jurisdiction. Each legislature has doubled in size, with the new seats allocated proportionally to all parties which score three percent of the total party vote, or one electorate seat.

Federal parliament, as of the 2010 election (300 seats + 4 overhang seats):

*Labor: 122 seats (72 electorate + 50 list)

*Liberal: 98 seats (44 electorate + 54 list)

*Liberal National: 29 seats (21 electorate + 8 list)

*National: 11 seats (6 electorate + 5 list)

*Country Liberal: 1 seat (1 electorate)

(Coalition total: 139 seats [72 electorate + 67 list])

*Greens: 38 seats (1 electorate + 37 list)

*National (WA): 1 seat (1 electorate)

*Independents: 4 seats

Labor, the Liberals, the LNP, the Nationals, and the Greens hit the 3% threshold; the WA Nationals and the CLP qualify by electing an electorate member, but don’t earn any further seats.

Likely result: Labor-Greens coalition (160 seats to 144)

New South Wales, as of the 2011 election (186 seats + 3 overhang seats):

*Liberal: 80 seats (51 electorate + 39 list)

*National: 26 seats (18 electorate + 8 list)

*Labor: 53 seats (20 electorate + 33 list)

*Greens: 21 seats (1 electorate + 20 list)

*Christian Democrats: 6 seats (6 list)

*Independents: 3 seats

The Liberals, the Nationals, Labor, the Greens, and the Christian Democrats hit the 3% threshold.

Likely result: Liberal-National coalition (106 seats to 83).

Victoria, as of the 2010 election (176 seats):

*Liberal: 73 seats (35 electorate + 48 list)

*National: 13 seats (10 electorate + 3 list)

*Labor: 69 seats (43 electorate + 26 list)

*Greens: 21 seats (21 list)

The Liberals, the Nationals, Labor, and the Greens hit the 3% threshold.

Likely result: Labor-Greens coalition (90 seats to 86) – John Brumby remains Premier.

Queensland, as of the 2009 election (178 seats + 4 overhang seats):

*Labor: 82 seats (51 electorate + 31 list)

*Liberal National: 80 seats (34 electorate + 46 list)

*Greens: 16 seats (16 list)

*Independents: 4 seats

The LNP, Labor, and the Greens hit the 3% threshold.

Likely result: Labor-Greens coalition (98 seats to 84).

Western Australia, as of the 2008 election (118 seats + 3 overhang seats):

*Liberal: 50 seats (24 electorate + 26 list)

*National: 6 seats (4 electorate + 2 list)

*Labor: 47 seats (28 electorate + 19 list)

*Greens: 15 seats (15 list)

*Independents: 3 seats

The Liberals, the Nationals, Labor, and the Greens hit the 3% threshold.

Likely result: Labor-Greens coalition (62 seats to 59) – Alan Carpenter remains Premier.

South Australia, as of the 2010 election (94 seats + 3 overhang seats):

*Labor: 38 seats (26 electorate + 12 list)

*Greens: 8 seats (8 list)

*Liberal: 42 seats (18 electorate + 24 list)

*Family First: 6 seats (6 list)

*Independents: 3 seats

Labor, the Liberals, the Greens, and Family First hit the 3% threshold.

Likely result: Independents holding the balance of power between a Labor-Greens coalition (46 seats) and a Liberal-Family First coalition (48 seats). A Liberal-Greens coalition (50 seats) and a Liberal-Labor ‘Grand Coalition’ (80 seats) are also possible.

Northern Territory, as of the 2008 election (50 seats + 1 overhang seat):

*Labor: 23 seats (13 electorate + 10 list)

*Greens: 2 seats (2 list)

*Country Liberal: 25 seats (11 electorate + 14 list)

*Independents: 1 seat

Labor, the CLP, and the Greens hit the 3% threshold.

Likely result: Independent Gerry Wood holding the balance of power between a Labor-Greens coalition (25 seats) and the CLP (25 seats). A CLP-Greens coalition (27 seats) and a CLP-Labor ‘Grand Coalition’ (48 seats) are also possible.